JEM | 刘坚 任彦军 洪宇 Thomas Glauben：森林碳汇项目影响了农业发展吗？——来自中国的准自然实验证据

Liu, J., Ren, Y., Hong, Y., & Glauben, T. (2023). Does forest farm carbon sink projects affect agricultural development? Evidence from a Quasi-experiment in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 335, 117500.

全文链接：

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117500

摘要：森林碳汇项目是实现碳中和以及减缓全球气候变暖的重要举措。现有文献讨论了森林碳汇项目对土地、劳动和收入结构等农业要素的影响，但是其对农业发展的影响还知之甚少。基于2002年至2018年中国四川省140个县域面板数据，我们研究了森林碳汇项目对农业全要素生产率的因果效应，并揭示森林碳汇项目影响农业全要素生产率的动态效果和潜在机制。通过应用倾向得分匹配法和双重差分法（PSM-DID），本文解决了森林碳汇项目实施的在其影响评估中的内生性问题。结果显示，森林碳汇项目使农业全要素生产率提高了1.7%-2.4%；健康、储蓄和产业结构是森林碳汇项目影响农业全要素生产率的重要机制。研究表明森林碳汇项目在实现生态效益的同时也提高了农业全要素生产率，从而实现了双赢局面。

Abstract: Forest Farm Carbon Sink (FFCS) projects are one of the effective ways to achieve carbon neutrality and mitigate global warming. Though the existing literature has widely discussed the effect of FFCS on the allocation of agricultural factors, such as land, labor employment structure and income structure, little is known about whether FFCS projects could have an effect on agricultural development. Based on the panel data of 140 counties in Sichuan province, China, from 2002 to 2018, we examined the causal effect on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), and revealed their dynamic effect and underlying mechanisms. Propensity score matching and the difference in difference (PSM-DID) method were used to address the endogeneity problem of FFCS implementation. Results showed that FFCS projects increased agricultural TFP by 1.7% to 2.4%. Health, saving and industrial structure were the important channels through which FFCS projects affect agricultural TFP. Our findings suggest that policies promoting FFCS projects can increase agricultural TFP while achieving environmental goals—a win-win situation.

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