芯片技术国际依赖网络结构及其演化
俞荣建1，赵一智1，项丽瑶2
（1.浙江工商大学 工商管理学院 全球价值链研究中心，浙江 杭州310018；
2.浙江财经大学 工商管理学院，浙江 杭州310018）
摘要：破解关键核心技术被“卡脖子”困局，需要对我国关键技术的国际依赖进行科学评价。针对技术依赖研究的理论争议和测度方法问题，基于资源依赖理论视角构建“结构差异、水平差距、技术价值和可替代性”四维技术依赖测度模型，选择芯片技术领域4大类技术模块、共15个主要技术为样本，共443 285条发明专利数据，测度中国、日本、韩国、美国、欧洲等五国（地区）芯片技术的二元技术依赖关系（单向和双向）、国际技术依赖网络结构，多层次技术依赖格局和多阶段演化特征，以及各国面临的技术威胁。研究发现：日本和美国在芯片技术国际依赖网络中占主要地位，中国具有一定节点入度、但处依赖明显劣势，难以形成反制能力。国际技术依赖网络日趋复杂，美国和日本等优势仍然显著、但有所减弱，各国（地区）之间依赖明显不均衡。日本和美国面临的技术威胁较小但逐渐上升，中国面临的技术威胁虽呈下降趋势，但在材料、设计、制造模块面临的技术威胁依然较大。研究丰富了技术依赖的理论内涵，并确立了技术依赖的四个维度理论结构。基于发明专利数据的技术依赖测度方法，为我国关键核心技术开展全面的安全评价提供了新的方法论。技术依赖网络结构分析方法，为技术威胁评价提供新的视角。研究结果对国际技术形势研判、技术威胁预测和排查以及科技战略部署等具有启示意义。
关键词：芯片技术；国际技术依赖；依赖网络；专利计量；网络分析
主要研究结论：基于资源依赖理论、从双边依赖视角，提出技术依赖的四维度结构，并据此构建技术依赖测度模型，采用5个主要国家/地区的发明专利数据作为分析对象，分析了1990年至2020年的国际技术依赖网络整体情况及演化规律，并基于国际依赖网络分析，测算了五个国家/地区的技术威胁指数，得到以下结论：第一，从全时间段的依赖网络看，日本和美国在依赖网络中处于主要地位。中国有一定的依赖入度，但程度较小，处于依赖劣势，说明中国在芯片技术领域有一定的技术发展，但目前难以形成反制能力。第二，从依赖网络结构的演化状态看，不难发现国际技术依赖网络愈显复杂，说明各国/地区都在一些技术单体环节有所发展，一方占据主要地位的形势有所减弱，但依赖差距仍较明显。美国在各阶段均占据主要地位，日本在材料、制造模块呈现后来居上的态势，中国虽处相对边缘位置，但对外依赖程度逐渐减少，技术能力经历了“从无到有”的蜕变。第三，从威胁指数看，日本和美国所面临的技术威胁较小，但在个别模块中呈现上升趋势；中国在各模块的技术威胁指数均呈下降趋势，但对外技术依赖带来的技术威胁依然较大，技术自主性亟须提高。
International dependence network structure of chip technology and its evolution
Yu Rongjian1, Zhao Yizhi1, Xiang Liyao2
(1. Global Value Chain Research Center,School of Business Administration, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China;
2. School of Business Administration, Zhejiang Financial and Economy University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China)
Abstract:In order to solve the dilemma that China′s key core technologies are "under stranglehold" by developed countries, we need to scientifically evaluate the international dependence of key technologies among countries. In view of theoretical disputes and measurement methods in the existing research on technology dependence, based on the resource dependence theory, this paper constructs a measurement model of technology dependence that includes four dimensions: technological structure difference, technological level gap, technological value and substitutability. Chip technology is a typical "stranglehold" technology, and its development level has become one of the important symbols to measure the international competitiveness of a country or region. It is of great practical significance to evaluate the international dependence of chip technology.
In this paper, 4 technology modules and 15 major technology monomers in the chip technology field were selected as research samples, and 443,285 invention patent data were obtained. These data were used to measure the pairwise dependence in the chip technology field of five countries or regions, including China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Europe, including unidirectional dependence and bidirectional dependence. According to the dual dependence relationship between the subjects, an international technology dependence network is constructed. The chip technology is divided into single layer, module layer and overall layer to explore the multi-level technology dependence pattern of chip technology, and the research stage is divided into three periods to analyze the evolution characteristics of international technology dependence network in multiple periods of time, and through the analysis of the structure of dependence network, it is used to calculate the security threat index that the technology of each country or region is facing.
The study found that the chip technology of Japan and the United States played a major role in the international technology dependence network. Some subjects in the network had a certain degree of technology dependence on China, but China′s external technology dependence was greater than its external dependence, so it was difficult to form a balance ability. The form of international technology dependence network in the field of chip technology is becoming increasingly complex. Although the technology dependence advantages of the United States, Japan and other countries have weakened, the dependence advantages are still significant, and the interdependence between countries (regions) is obviously unbalanced. The security threats faced by Japan and the United States in the field of chip technology are relatively small, but from a multi period perspective, both have shown a gradual upward trend. Although the security threats faced by China in the field of chip technology are gradually declining, compared with Japan and the United States, the technical threats faced by the three modules, namely, material module, design module and manufacturing module, are still large, while the technical threats faced by the sealing and testing link are small.
Based on the resource dependence theory, this paper proposes a four-dimensional theoretical structure of technology dependence, which enriches theoretical connotation of technology dependence. Starting from the technology standard, the technology invention patent data is used to measure the international dual technology dependence relationship and degree, and thus to build an international technology dependence network. This innovative method research provides a new methodology for China to carry out comprehensive safety evaluation of key core technologies. Through the measurement and analysis of technology dependent network structure, the security threats faced by key core technologies in various countries or regions are evaluated. This method provides a new perspective for technology threat assessment research.
The results of this paper are instructive to the research and judgment of international technology development situation, the analysis of international technology dependence situation, the prediction and investigation of technology threats, and the national science and technology strategic deployment.
Key words:chip technology; international technology dependence; dependent network; patent measurement; network analysis
引用本文：俞荣建,赵一智,项丽瑶.芯片技术国际依赖网络结构及其演化[J].科研管理,2023,44(05):70-84.
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