环境规制是否影响了双向FDI的产业升级效应
韩先锋1，宋文飞2，朱承亮3
（1.昆明理工大学 管理与经济学院，云南 昆明650093;
2.陕西师范大学 西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院，陕西 西安710119;
3.中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所，北京100732）
摘要：在经济高质量发展的现实要求下，研究双向FDI的产业升级效应问题已无法规避环境规制策略的动态调节机制。采用中国2004—2019年30省份面板数据及门槛计量技术，实证考察了环境规制能否有效倒逼和动态纠偏双向FDI的产业升级效应。结果发现：OFDI对产业升级产生了积极影响，而IFDI则妨碍了产业升级，并未显现国际资本助力中国产业升级的“双轮驱动”现象；双向FDI的动态产业升级效应存在明显差异，OFDI和IFDI对产业升级的影响分别具有“U”型和负向“U”型演化特征；环境规制能彻底扭转双向FDI对产业升级的潜在不利冲击，可完全成为国际资本有效驱动产业升级的双向“调控器”，但相比“走出去”，须在“引进来”过程中实施更为严厉的环境规制策略；现阶段的环境规制强度最有利于倒逼OFDI逆向产业升级，但对IFDI驱动产业升级总体具有消极的纠偏效果；双向FDI驱动产业升级的环境规制调节机制存在空间差异，东部地区要实现最优调节效果需实施远高于中、西部地区的环境规制强度；现阶段环境规制虽对各地区OFDI逆向产业升级产生了不同程度的积极调节效果，但并未能有效倒逼东、西部地区实现IFDI与产业升级的协调发展。本文研究表明，应因事制宜、因时制宜、因地制宜地设计更加细分、灵活的环境规制策略，以充分发挥环境规制在OFDI和IFDI驱动产业升级过程中的双向“调控器”功能。
关键词：环境规制；外商直接投资；对外直接投资；产业升级；动态调节
主要研究结论：本文采用中国2004—2019年30省份面板数据及门槛计量技术，实证考察了环境规制调节下双向FDI的动态产业升级效应。主要结论如下：（1）OFDI对产业升级产生了积极影响，而IFDI妨碍了产业升级；（2）双向FDI对产业升级的动态影响存在显著差异，OFDI逆向产业升级效应呈现“U”型动态演化特征，而IFDI的产业升级效应具有负向“U”型非线性规律；（3）环境规制对OFDI的产业升级效应存在正向倒“U”型调节特征，而对IFDI的产业升级效应具有“U”型调节特征，即环境规制能有效扭转双向FDI对产业升级的潜在不利影响，但相比“走出去”过程中这一调控目标的实现，须在“引进来”过程中实施更为严厉的环境规制策略；（4）现阶段的环境规制强度最有利于驱动OFDI的产业升级效应，而对IFDI产业升级的调节效果是负面的；（5）环境规制对双向FDI驱动产业升级的动态调节效果存在显著的空间差异现象，东部地区要实现最优调节效果需采用远高于中、西部地区的环境规制强度；（6）现阶段环境规制对不同地区OFDI逆向产业升级效应均产生了积极调节效果，但并未能有效推动东、西部地区IFDI与产业升级的协调发展。
Whether environmental regulation affects the industrial upgrading effect of two-way FDI
Han Xianfeng1, Song Wenfei2, Zhu Chengliang3
(1. Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, Yunnan,China;
2. Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and Socio-Economic Development, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi′an 710119, Shaanxi, China;
3. Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China)
Abstract:In the new era, accelerating industrial upgrading has become a key measure for China to achieve high-quality economic development. It is generally believed that, whether it is cross-border capital inflow or outflow, it is often accompanied by overall transfer and reallocation of a large number of technologies, human capital and management experience, so that the role of two-way FDI in driving industrial upgrading cannot be ignored. In particular, with the continuous deepening of the concept of green development in China, the government has continuously raised the "quality threshold" of international capital flows, which invisibly promotes environmental regulation to become an important tool for regulating international capital flows. Unfortunately, few academic studies have paid attention to this issue. Under such circumstances, scientific analysis of whether environmental regulation can become a "regulator" for two-way FDI-driven industrial upgrading in the new era undoubtedly has important theoretical and practical significance.
Literature analysis found that there are still some shortcomings among existing research: Firstly, the dynamic evolution law and phase characteristics of the role of two-way FDI in the process of industrial upgrading are ignored; Secondly, there is no literature systematically explaining whether environmental regulation can become a "regulator" for two-way FDI to drive domestic industrial upgrading. The main innovation of this paper is that it effectively identifies the effects of environmental regulation on international capital inflows, outflows and domestic industries, as well as the dynamic and differentiated adjustment characteristics in the process of upgrading the internal correlation, and then based on the new perspective of two-way regulation of environmental regulation, it provides a feasible solution for effectively realizing the coordinated development of international capital investment and domestic industrial upgrading.
Using panel data from 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2004 to 2019, and threshold measurement technology, we empirically examined whether environmental regulations can effectively force and dynamically correct the industrial upgrading effect of two-way FDI. The results show that: The impact of OFDI and IFDI on industrial upgrading has the characteristics of "U" and negative "U" evolution respectively; Environmental regulation can completely reverse the potential adverse impact of two-way FDI on industrial upgrading, and can completely become a two-way "regulator" for international capital to effectively drive industrial upgrading. The current intensity of environmental regulations is most conducive to forcing OFDI′s reverse industrial upgrading, but the correction effect on IFDI-driven industrial upgrading is generally negative; Although the current environmental regulations affect OFDI in various regions, the reverse industrial upgrading effect of China has produced various degrees of positive adjustment effects, but it has not effectively forced the eastern and western regions to achieve the coordinated development of IFDI and industrial upgrading.
This paper has the following policy implications: Firstly, the government should not only exert the positive impact of OFDI on industrial upgrading, but also avoid the adverse impact of IFDI on industrial upgrading as much as possible. Maintaining a moderate or high intensity OFDI strategy is conducive to industrial upgrading, while the IFDI strategy has relatively little room for policy adjustment. It should be ensured that the IFDI intensity is kept at a relatively high level within a certain limit; Secondly, the government should implement a heterogeneous environmental regulation strategy, so as to keep the intensity of environmental regulation in the process of "going out" at a moderate level. In addition, it is necessary to continue to enhance the intensity of environmental regulation in the process of "bringing in", forcing IFDI companies to continuously improve their technological content in China; Thirdly, the eastern region should implement a strict and heterogeneous environmental regulation strategy of "bringing in" rather than "going out", the central region should maintain a moderate environmental regulation strategy in the process of two-way opening, and the western region should take lower environmental regulation strategies in the process of "going out", while moderate environmental regulation means should be implemented in the "bringing in" process.
Key words:environmental regulation; foreign direct investment (FDI); outward foreign direct investment (OFDI); industrial upgrading; dynamic adjustment
引用本文：韩先锋,宋文飞,朱承亮.环境规制是否影响了双向FDI的产业升级效应[J].科研管理,2023,44(7):124-133.
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