刘馨月 王晓兵 徐志刚：工资上涨影响下中国农业规模经营的两极分化与约束

Xinyue Liu , Xiaobing Wang and Zhigang Xu* (2023). The polarization and constraints of scale farming in China under the impact of rising wages. Journal of Asian Economics, 86: 101619

全文链接（开放获取）：

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101619

摘要：对于亚洲小农经济国家来说，以土地流转为特征的农业规模经营有助于实现规模经济，提高生产率。然而，近年来由于农业部门实际工资的快速上涨，农业劳动力成本不断增加，一定程度上制约了农业规模经营的发展。基于吉林、江苏和四川三省458户规模经营户的面板数据，我们研究了工资上涨对不同规模的规模经营户农场规模调整和机械投资影响的异质性。此外，我们进一步分析和检验了他们通过规模调整和机械投资应对工资上涨时面临的制约因素。我们的研究发现，工资上涨对不同农场规模的规模经营户产生了相反的影响，这导致了中国农业规模经营户的两极分化。具体来说，由于工资上涨，规模较大的规模经营户进一步扩大农场规模，并投资农业机械，这种适应性调整受区域农时弹性和农户流动性约束的制约。相反，规模较小的规模经营户缩小农场规模并减少机械投资以应对工资上涨，他们的适应性调整受非农就业机会的制约。因此，政府应考虑农业规模经营户的异质性，采取相应的政策措施缓解他们应对工资上涨时面临的约束，以促进农业规模经营的发展。

Abstract: For small-peasant economy countries in Asia, scale farming, characterized by land transfer, helps achieve scale economies and improve productivity. However, the scale farming development is hindered by the increasing farm labor cost because of the rising wages. Based on a panel dataset of 458 tenant farmers in Jilin, Jiangsu, and Sichuan provinces in China, we investigate heterogeneity in the impact of rising wages on tenant farmers’ farm size and machinery investment of different initial farm sizes. Additionally, we further analyze the different constraints they face in adapting to wage increases. Our results show the antithetical impact of rising wages on tenant farmers with different farm sizes. This results in the polarization of tenant farmers’ farm size in China. Meanwhile, tenant farmers face various constraints in the adjustment process of farm size and machinery investment. Specifically, large-scale tenant farmers increase their farm size and invest in agricultural machinery given the rising wages. The extent of this adjustment depends on farming seasons and their liquidity. In contrast, small-scale tenant farmers reduce their farm size and machinery investment. Their choices are limited by the availability of off-farm employment opportunities. Therefore, the government should consider the heterogeneity of tenant farmers and help mitigate the constraints they face to promote the development of scale farming.

转自：“三农学术”微信公众号

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